From the Pragmatic Environmentalist of New York
Richard Ellenbogen just lately gave an vital presentation on New York State’s Power Transition that particulars his considerations with the web -zero mandate of the Local weather Management and Neighborhood Safety Act (CLCPA). I feel it can be crucial that his message will get out to all New Yorkers.
Sadly, the presentation could be very detailed to keep away from points with these individuals who have a financial curiosity on this course of and the local weather zealots who will undoubtedly disagree with the findings and suggestions. This makes the video over two hours lengthy and really dense. That is past the eye span of most individuals. I attempted to deal with that downside by highlighting what I feel are the first factors with hyperlinks to the corresponding sections of the video.
Ellenbogen is the President [BIO] Allied Converters and steadily copies me on emails that deal with varied points related to the CLCPA. I’ve printed different articles by him and an outline of his keynote deal with to the Enterprise Council of New York 2023 Renewable Power Convention Power titled: “Power on Demand because the Life Blood of Enterprise and Entrepreneurship within the State -video right here: Why NY State Should Rethink Its Power Plan and Ten Ideas to Assist Repair the Issues.” There are only some folks in New York which are making an attempt to coach folks in regards to the dangers of the CLCPA with as a lot ardour as I’m however Richard actually suits that description. He comes on the downside as an engineer who actually cares in regards to the surroundings and the way finest to enhance the surroundings with out unintended penalties. He has spent an infinite period of time honing his presentation summarizing the issues he sees however most of all of the environmental efficiency document of his enterprise exhibits that he’s strolling the stroll.
CLCPA Overview
The CLCPA established a New York “Web Zero” goal (85% discount and 15% offset of emissions) by 2050. It consists of an interim 2030 discount goal of a 40% discount by 2030 and a requirement that every one electrical energy generated be “zero-emissions” by 2040. The Local weather Motion Council (CAC) is accountable for making ready the Scoping Plan that outlines the right way to “obtain the State’s daring clear vitality and local weather agenda.” In short, that plan is to affect all the things potential utilizing zero-emissions electrical energy. The Integration Evaluation ready by the New York State Power Analysis and Growth Authority (NYSERDA) and its consultants quantifies the affect of the electrification methods. That materials was used to develop the Draft Scoping Plan. After a year-long overview, the Scoping Plan suggestions had been finalized on the finish of 2022. In 2023 the Scoping Plan suggestions are presupposed to be carried out via regulation and laws. Ellenbogen’s presentation focuses on these proposed implementation packages.
Presentation Introduction
The Introduction to the presentation explains:
The next video has been made as a public service for the residents of New York State. The audio system haven’t any financial curiosity within the fossil gas business or in any of the tools producers associated to the vitality transition. The rental of the Pelham Image Home, used for the presentation, was coated at their private expense.
Ellenbogen despatched me an e mail that described the presentation. He wrote:
The video has some main variations from the presentation that was executed because the keynote presentation on the Enterprise Council of NY State Renewable Power Convention as latest occasions have made it extra obvious that the NY State Power plan has main flaws in its logic. These points weren’t sudden, nevertheless watching them happen in actual time has made addressing the issues an crucial. Issues aren’t going to get higher.
There are a number of components of the presentation. Two movies had been operating previous to the presentation whereas folks had been getting into the theater. One is a video describing the merchandise his firm makes and the way his facility has been made extra vitality environment friendly. The second video explains sustainability at Allied Converters and the way it has stored them in enterprise regardless of New York’s excessive vitality costs. The presentation video itself consists of an 8-minute introduction that that used these slides. The remainder of the video is an 80-minute presentation (slide deck) adopted by 45 minutes of questions and solutions.
Ellenbogen notes:
The presentation is lengthy as a result of it is rather detailed. It was executed that method as a result of everybody that has a financial curiosity on this course of, together with the local weather zealots, goes to attempt to disparage the knowledge contained within the presentation so I attempted to cowl all the points to keep away from that as a lot as potential.
I’m very conscious of issues associated to making an attempt to explain the intricacies and issues with the CLCPA transition. It’s associated to certainly one of my pragmatic environmentalist ideas specifically the BS Asymmetry Precept described by Alberto Brandolini: “The quantity of vitality essential to refute BS is an order of magnitude larger than to supply it.” Richard and I have to delve into the main points to answer the issues of the CLCPA. That is essential but it surely additionally makes it tough for folks to deal with the quantity and complexity of knowledge wanted to clarify flaws. I attempted to focus on what I feel are the important thing factors within the presentation with hyperlinks to the corresponding part of the video in case readers shouldn’t have the time to hearken to the entire thing.
Key Factors
Within the Introduction Ellenbogen presents an summary of the CLCPA and a few of the issues. A recurring theme within the presentation is that different jurisdictions, particularly Germany. which were making an attempt to do the identical factor as deliberate within the CLCPA aren’t doing so nicely. Ignoring their expertise is dangerous. He argues that the CLCPA is a fantasy for the next causes:
- Lack of vitality to help the plan,
- The renewables wanted can’t be put in on the mandated schedule,
- Prices to excecute the plan can be a lot higher than different emission discount methods,
- The plan will enhance GHG emissions greater than different methods, and
- There are logic errors within the analyses.
John Ravitz from the Enterprise Council of Westchester County collaborated with Ellenbogen to arrange the presentation. Throughout his introduction he argued that all of us need a greater surroundings, however we have now to do it the proper method. He emphasised the necessity to have trustworthy conversations about the right way to get there. I agree with all these factors. He additionally stated one thing that confirmed what I had lengthy suspected. He identified that the CLCPA laws was handed “at midnight” on the finish of the session and “I assure you that 99.9% of the members of the New York State Legislature didn’t learn the invoice.” He stated they didn’t perceive the schedule points and unintended penalties that would occur.
The presentation itself begins with extra background of what Ellenbogen did at his enterprise and the way that background worries him in regards to the proposed plan to satisfy the CLCPA mandates.
There are solely two points the place I’ve considerably completely different opinions than Ellenbogen. Whereas I can agree that lowering emissions is an efficient factor I don’t imagine that greenhouse fuel emission reductions may have any impact on excessive climate. I toyed with together with a extra detailed argument for my perception and a response to Ellenbogen’s feedback on this regard however I don’t wish to detract from the principle level that the CLCPA is dangerous coverage.
My considerations in regards to the implementation of the CLCPA are similar to Ellenbogen, however we aren’t precisely aligned. One in every of his large departures from the narrative of the CLCPA acolytes is that he sees a spot for brand spanking new pure fuel mixed cycle generators. That’s heresy to those that insist on zero emissions. I agree with Wealthy on that, however I feel the usage of current fossil-fired producing items is acceptable too as a result of many items have put in extra controls, have decrease emissions than previously, and nonetheless fulfill crucial reliability companies. There is no such thing as a query that till the New York unbiased System Operator (NYOSO) determines these items will be shut down they’ve to stay accessible. Nevertheless, I imagine that it might be acceptable to maintain a few of these items on standby longer than anybody else admits at this level as a result of wind and photo voltaic sources availability throughout worst-case situations is a a lot larger downside than most individuals understand. These previous items will be an insurance coverage coverage for these uncommon and comparatively short-term occasions.
His description of the Complicated Drawback Conundrum is especially vital. Within the rush to succeed in zero the Local weather Act doesn’t account for probably ratepayer reactions. In the event you pressure folks to make use of one thing that’s costlier and doesn’t work as nicely they could resort to options which are even worse.
One other vital dialogue explains why New York State vitality coverage is a multitude. He argues and I agree that political interference within the technical points related to working a dependable and inexpensive electrical vitality system can not finish nicely. It can’t be emphasised sufficient {that a} reasonable value/profit evaluation has not been executed. The Hochul Administration has by no means offered detailed documentation for the prices and anticipated emission reductions for the particular management methods which are included within the Scoping Plan. That ought to be the primary part of an trustworthy dialog. His dialogue goes on to listing lots of the obstacles to implementation which are additionally prime matters for conversations.
I agree with Ellenbogen’s description of obstacles that should be overcome. He factors out that we aren’t studying from others and that “Madness is doing the identical factor again and again and anticipating completely different outcomes.”
I have written in regards to the assertion by Robert W. Howarth, Ph.D., the David R. Atkinson Professor of Ecology & Environmental Biology supporting the adoption of the Scoping Plan. Howarth claims to be an writer of the CLCPA and was a member of the Local weather Motion Council. Ellenbogen addresses the tutorial article that Howarth co-authored that’s the foundation of the Local weather Act presumption that no new know-how is required for the electrical system transition and that the mandated schedule is feasible. As a result of he’s a graduate of Cornell, Ellenbogen felt it was essential to clarify his reasoning in his e mail:
To anybody at Cornell or Stanford that has an issue with the presentation on the 47 minute mark, I stand behind what I stated. There may be data in these paperwork that was false in 2013 and that has been confirmed by the truth that in 2023, the applied sciences that they claimed had been available then nonetheless don’t exist in a kind that can be utilized on the utility system, however this doc is getting used as the premise for NY State Power coverage and other people could die because of this.
Later within the presentation he references work by Cornell engineers that claims the transition plan that’s the foundation of the CLCPA will fail. It’s actually troubling that Ellenbogen and the facility system consultants at Cornell haven’t been in a position to affect New York vitality coverage away from the mis-guided and refuted educational paper co-authored by a biologist.
The CLCPA will have an effect on the best way we warmth our houses. Ellenbogen has private expertise with warmth pumps and does a good job explaining why the give attention to warmth pumps as an answer by NYSERDA will fail. He factors out issues which were noticed in Germany within the following slide.
The CLCPA can even have an effect on the best way we cook dinner. The standard suspects have been vilifying pure fuel stoves and the presentation addresses this part of the net-zero transition. He argues that the well being affect claims aren’t well worth the paper they’re printed on and the tradeoff between advantages and prices is poor.
So as to clarify why the Integration Evaluation is fantasy he offers background data on the distinction between energy and vitality and why capability elements are vital. Ellenbogen repeatedly states that “I’m not anti-renewable however you need to take a look at the numbers and be reasonable”. The ability, vitality, and capability issue numbers have an effect on the viability of a renewable vitality powered electrical grid.
He describes the evaluation within the Scoping Plan for the CLCPA as fantasy. The Energy, vitality, and capability issue estimates within the Integration evaluation aren’t reasonable. I like the outline of the 20 GW of zero-carbon agency useful resource as “unicorn technology” as a result of “you’re as more likely to see it as you’re to see a unicorn.” Everybody besides Howarth and his acolytes believes that this zero-carbon agency useful resource is required to deal with rare durations of prolonged low wind and photo voltaic useful resource availability. The vitality transition requires this new know-how, however the State has unrealistic expectations for implementing it.
Ellenbogen’s presentation presents a rational different to the fantasies of the CLCPA implementation plan. He appears on the electrical load essential to interchange the vitality used for functions aside from electrical technology – heating, cooking, sizzling water, and transportation and concludes that on-site combustion of pure fuel ought to have a task. The Cornell examine of vitality storage exhibits a a lot larger estimate of quantity wanted and that will increase prices considerably.
For the price of the storage wanted you can construct 6 or 7 nuclear vegetation that will produce dispatchable energy and would final 60 years. Wind and photo voltaic life expectancy is on the order of 20 years and batteries half of that which makes this transition technique is way more costly. He notes that implementation prices are already beginning to present up in fee circumstances and this can solely proceed. His arguments for options additionally level out that batteries will enhance emissions till all of the technology is zero-emissions.
Ellenbogen has refined his evaluation over time. I feel his arguments to go away on-site combustion in place are notably persuasive. It’s extra environment friendly to make use of on-site technology. He advocates for elevated use of electrical automobiles and permitting this technology frees up vitality for them which implies much less technology is required. He additionally recommends a practical method to cut back CO2 emissions from utility-scale co-generation. The productiveness in greenhouses will increase considerably at larger CO2 ranges and the CO2 is taken up by the vegetation. I vaguely recall a plan to construct greenhouses on the industrial park the place the Micron chip fabrication plant is deliberate. Utilizing a co-generation energy plant to offer the electrical energy wanted by that facility, utilizing the waste warmth for fabrication processes, and supplying the CO2 to the greenhouses addresses a number of issues and reduces total prices.
Lastly, he makes suggestions to cut back private utility prices and short- and long-term adjustments to the New York vitality plan. It’s no shock that vitality effectivity is vital for private utility value reductions. For the vitality plan he suggests the next short-term suggestions:
- Don’t electrify buildings that run on pure fuel,
- Focus warmth pump deployment away from buildings that run on pure fuel,
- Improve the grid infrastructure to help the electrification necessities,
- Improve help for electrical car infrastructure together with grid help,
- Don’t set up massive quantities of battery storage till renewable technology will increase,
- Repower older producing vegetation with larger effectivity mixed cycle pure fuel items,
- Develop applied sciences aside from electrolysis to generate inexperienced hydrogen,
- Focus pure fuel sources on mixed warmth and energy programs,
- Enable Micron to construct a 2 GW mixed cycle co-generation facility,
- Determine how the utilities can set up and interconnect the deliberate offshore wind,
- Arrange pilot initiatives for greenhouse agriculture to establish values, and
- Authorize the institution of pyrolysis initiatives for the elimination of plastic waste and natural waste and for technology of hydrogen that can be utilized to enhance energy plant effectivity.
In the long run he suggests including 12 GW of nuclear to the producing system.
He concludes that New York ought to use frequent sense options to maintain the lights on as a result of when fantasies meet actuality, actuality all the time wins. He notes that the CLCPA really is hindering greenhouse fuel emission efforts, dangers reliability and can have an effect on affordability. Within the following slide he urges folks to contact their State Senators and Assemblypersons to change or repeal the CLCPA.
Q&A
In case you are within the questions and solutions they begin at this level. The session received heated when somebody who subscribes to all the CLCPA narrative speaking factors that Ellenbogen dismantled in his presentation requested why wind and photo voltaic alone can’t work and claimed nuclear has no place. It received so dangerous that somebody within the viewers piped in and stated in case you can not present numbers supporting your place like Ellenbogen did then sit down since you losing our time.
Caveat
Ellenbogen has invested huge time and vitality into this presentation due to his private conviction that the present plan will not be a good suggestion. He writes:
Take into account that I’ve no financial curiosity on this however I’ve an enormous downside with the questionable or misleading at finest, and negligent at worst, science getting used to justify these insurance policies. I’ve spent 1000’s of hours researching the main points and have attended all the conferences in Albany and elsewhere at my private expense, each in money and time, in addition to paying for the rental of the Image Home, together with John Ravitz.
Conclusion
Ellenbogen factors out that the societal advantages are calculated as if New York is in a vacuum. The very fact is that fully eliminating New York greenhouse fuel emissions won’t have a significant impact on any of the impacts ascribed to local weather change as a result of the state’s whole emissions are so small that they are going to be subsumed by emission enhance elsewhere throughout the globe in a matter of weeks. He goes to nice lengths so level out that he’s not anti-renewable vitality sources. These factors and others that disparage the CLCPA transition plan don’t imply that we must always not do one thing to cut back GHG emissions. Nevertheless, we must always not “make up fantasies to justify it” or keep away from trustworthy conversations about how finest to implement a transition to decrease emissions. It’s time to truthfully discuss in regards to the implications of this legislation.
Ellenbogen has the ear of many individuals on the businesses in Albany and unofficially they agree along with his considerations. Sadly, they don’t seem to be within the place to say something publicly as a result of the CLCPA is a legislation and the businesses have been weaponized to help the political ambitions of the Administration within the final decade. Talking out of line with narrative will not be a superb profession transfer for technical workers on the businesses. Privately they admit that it’ll take a Texas-style blackout catastrophe to vary the route of the net-zero transition. The February 2021 Texas electrical grid failure was the worst vitality infrastructure failure in Texas historical past leading to over 4.5 million houses and residences dropping energy in very chilly climate, over 245 folks dying and whole damages of a minimum of $195 billion.
Do not forget that New York vitality consultants are warning that until one thing is completed this sort of catastrophe is inevitable right here. I ready this abstract of the presentation as a result of I feel you will need to educate New Yorkers. I reiterate Ellenbogen’s suggestion: contact your State Senators and Assemblypersons to change or repeal the CLCPA. Contact the Governor’s Workplace in order that the Administration will get the phrase that the loud environmental organizations aren’t the one ones involved about this legislation. Go on this presentation to others who can be affected by this fantastical vitality coverage and encourage them to talk up. It’s too dangerous, we can not afford it, and the plans are unsupportable.
Associated
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