The Week That Was: 2023-10-07 (October 7, 2023)
Dropped at You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking
Quote of the Week: It’s discovered that even ·a rise by an element of 8 within the quantity of CO2 , which is extremely unlikely within the subsequent a number of thousand years, will produce a rise within the floor temperature of lower than 2 °Okay. Nonetheless, the impact on floor temperature of a rise within the aerosol content material of the environment is discovered to be fairly important. A rise by an element of 4 within the equilibrium mud focus within the world environment, which can’t be dominated out as a risk throughout the subsequent century, might lower the imply floor temperature by as a lot as 3.5°Okay. If sustained over a interval of a number of years, such a temperature lower may very well be enough to set off an ice age! — S. I. Rasool and S. H. Schneider, Science, Jul. 9, 1971 [Boldface added]
Variety of the Week:lower than 15% of the time in 2021, then dropped.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Coverage Undertaking (SEPP)
Scope: This TWTW will talk about the abrupt warming of the environment as introduced by the College of Alabama, Huntsville World Temperature Report. Then it is going to speculate that a part of the warming could also be defined by the Svensmark Speculation, however no conclusions could be reached but. Just a few key statements by Nobel Co-Laureate in physics John Clauser to college students in South Korea are introduced. One other instance of fact-checkers utilizing accusation and rumor instead of details is introduced.
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Uncommon Warming: Of their World Temperature Report, September 2023, John Christy and Roy Spencer talk about the weird, sudden warming occurring within the environment, the place the greenhouse gases impede outgoing radiation. Opposite to many reviews, there is no such thing as a sudden improve in carbon dioxide concentrations. NOAA’s World Monitoring Laboratory for June 2023, the most recent month out there, reported the standard seasonal change with CO2 concentrations growing within the Northern Hemisphere winter and declining within the spring. In June 2023 CO2 was at 419.51 ppm (components per million quantity) in comparison with June 2022 at 417.43 ppm. In accordance with world warming alarmists, this slight change ought to have a major impression on temperatures. It doesn’t. Additional, the observatory at Mauna Loa (now truly at Mauna Kea Observatories 21 miles away) reported August 2023 focus of 419.68 ppm in contrast with August 2022 focus of 417.15 ppm.
Of their World Temperature Report for September 2023, Christy and Spencer write:
“World local weather pattern since Dec. 1, 1978: +0.14 C per decade [see note at end]
September Temperatures (preliminary)
World composite temp: +0.90 C (+1.62°F) above the seasonal common
Northern Hemisphere: +0.94 C (+1.69°F) above seasonal common
Southern Hemisphere: +0.86 C (+1.55°F) above seasonal common
Tropics: +0.93 C (+1.67°F) above seasonal common
August Temperatures (remaining)
World composite temp: +0.70 C (+1.26°F) above the seasonal common
Northern Hemisphere: +0.88 C (+1.58°F) above seasonal common
Southern Hemisphere: +0.51 C (+0.92°F) above seasonal common
Tropics: +0.86 C (+1.55°F) above seasonal common
The worldwide atmospheric temperature anomaly jumped in September to +0.90°C (+1.62°F) above the 30-year common, setting a brand new anomaly file for the 45-year satellite tv for pc period. This month’s departure simply outdistanced Feb 2016 when the temperature peaked then at +0.71 °C (+1.28 °F). This makes three months in a row that the earlier temperature file was outmoded as the present El Niño got here on in drive sooner than is typical, warming up the environment in these mid-year (and already heat) months. Although the tropics this month have been hotter than another September, the early-year months of Jan-Apr nonetheless maintain the information for the biggest departures from common on this equatorial belt. Apart from the worldwide file for departure from common, this month produced file departures for all months for the worldwide land and ocean individually, NH land, and SH land and ocean.
As mentioned prior to now two months, July nonetheless represents the warmest world “absolute” month-to-month temperature (since July is already on common the most well liked month every year) with a [lower troposphere] temperature of 266.06 Okay [Zero C equals 273.15 K]. As a result of September is on common cooler than July, absolutely the temperature this month was cooler too at 265.54 Okay despite the fact that the anomaly was bigger (+0.90 Okay vs. +0.64 Okay). These very heat world atmospheric temperatures are anticipated to proceed with the continued El Niño occasion by means of no less than the boreal winter in 2024 because the tropical Pacific seawater temperatures are nonetheless hotter than common, particularly for this time of 12 months, although the tropical water temperatures appeared to have leveled off prior to now two months. See NOAA’s updates right here. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/merchandise/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolutionstatus-fcsts-web.pdf.
An fascinating query at this level is, “When will the El Niño and its warming affect peak?” Because it started 4-5 months sooner than normal, will it peak earlier as effectively, or will it proceed to take care of its energy till the standard peak in Feb-Apr? We must wait and see.
The planet’s warmest spot in September occurred over northern Poland at +4.1 °C (+7.5°F). Hotter than common situations have been pervasive within the tropical belt with exceptionally heat areas in Europe by means of western Russia, NW Canada, center South America, southern Australia, and the North Pacific Ocean.
With a studying of -2.0°C (-3.7°F), the good departure from common may very well be discovered over southern Chile. Cooler than common areas have been few and much between however included the far North Atlantic, southern Chile, and Kazakhstan.
Not like the globe as an entire, the conterminous US was solely barely above common at +0.40°C (+0.72°F), with the West being comparatively cool. Alaska was even cooler than the decrease 48, so with Alaska, the 49-state common was +0.29 °C (+0.52°F). [We don’t include Hawaii in the US results because its land area is less than that of one satellite grid square, so it would have virtually no impact on the overall national results.]
A notice concerning the world temperature pattern. For a number of years now, the pattern has been extraordinarily near +0.135 °C/decade. This previous July, the brink of 0.135 was crossed at +0.1352 °C/decade. The worldwide pattern is now +0.14 °C/decade by rounding up.
*Within the July 2023 GTR we reported the February 2016 anomaly as +0.70 °C. Because the intercalibrations between satellites are recalculated with every month’s new information, there’s the opportunity of tiny modifications within the base annual cycle (< 0.01 °C), and thus the anomalies calculated therefrom. That is the rationale for the February 2016 worth being +0.71 °C this [that] month.”
If not CO2, which is growing steadily, what triggered the sudden warming.? We have no idea. Prospects should be sorted out. As Christy and Spencer write, the El Niño contributed, however the information are usually not sufficiently clear. The uncertainty permits for a great deal of hypothesis, and under TWTW will interact in some. See hyperlinks below Measurement Points – Environment.
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Speculating on Abrupt Atmospheric Warming: There may be little query that sturdy El Niños in 1998 and 2016 put a considerable amount of water vapor into the environment and have been the dominant reason for atmospheric warming in these years, often with a lag of 4 to six months. However the present El Niño has not peaked. Is there one thing else that may be contributing to the weird warming?
In “Empirical evaluation of the position of the Solar in local weather change utilizing balanced multi-proxy photo voltaic information” revealed by Geoscience Frontiers, Nicola Scafetta takes exception to the publications of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) which give the solar a particularly minor position in inflicting local weather and temperature modifications. The summary begins:
“The position of the Solar in local weather change is hotly debated. Some research counsel its impression is critical, whereas others counsel it’s minimal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change (IPCC) helps the latter view and suggests that just about 100% of the noticed floor warming from 1850–1900 to 2020 is because of anthropogenic emissions. Nonetheless, the IPCC’s conclusions are based mostly solely on pc simulations made with world local weather fashions (GCMs) compelled with a complete photo voltaic irradiance (TSI) file exhibiting a low multi-decadal and secular variability. The identical fashions additionally assume that the Solar impacts the local weather system solely by means of radiative forcing – comparable to TSI – despite the fact that the local weather is also affected by different photo voltaic processes. On this paper I suggest three “balanced” multi-proxy fashions of complete photo voltaic exercise (TSA) that take into account all predominant photo voltaic proxies proposed in scientific literature.”
The deserves and the outcomes of the Scafetta’s fashions are usually not mentioned right here. Nonetheless, Scafetta concludes his summary with:
“The end result additionally means that no less than about 80% of the photo voltaic affect on the local weather might not be induced by TSI forcing alone, however quite by different Solar-climate processes (e.g., by a photo voltaic magnetic modulation of cosmic ray and different particle fluxes, and/or others), which should be completely investigated and bodily understood earlier than reliable GCMs could be created. This end result explains why empirical research typically discovered that the photo voltaic contribution to local weather modifications all through the Holocene has been important, whereas GCM-based research, which solely undertake radiative forcings, counsel that the Solar performs a comparatively modest position. Appendix A (Supplementary Information Textual content) consists of the proposed TSA information.” [Boldface added]
The photo voltaic magnetic modulation of cosmic rays and different particle fluxes has been effectively examined by CERN, the European Group for Nuclear Analysis, in its CLOUD experiments and was not rejected. But, the extremely politicized IPCC has fully ignored this analysis. Thus, the Svensmark Speculation superior by Henrik Svensmark and Eigil Friis-Christensen linking excessive vitality cosmic waves with altering depth of photo voltaic wind could also be a attainable clarification for the present abrupt warming. Atmospheric ionization and cloud formation, key to the Svensmark Speculation was additional mentioned in an article in Nature, Scientific Reviews. The summary states:
“Atmospheric ionization produced by cosmic rays has been suspected to affect aerosols and clouds, however its precise significance has been questioned. If modifications in atmospheric ionization have a considerable impression on clouds, one would count on to look at important responses in Earth’s vitality price range. Right here it’s proven that the typical of the 5 strongest week-long decreases in atmospheric ionization coincides with modifications within the common web radiative stability of 1.7 W/m2 (median worth: 1.2 W/m2) utilizing CERES satellite tv for pc observations. Simultaneous satellite tv for pc observations of clouds present that these variations are primarily brought on by modifications within the short-wave radiation of low liquid clouds together with small modifications within the long-wave radiation and are nearly solely situated over the pristine areas of the oceans. These noticed radiation and cloud modifications are according to a hyperlink by which atmospheric ionization modulates aerosol’s formation and progress, which survive to cloud condensation nuclei and finally have an effect on cloud formation and thereby briefly the radiative stability of Earth.”
To discover the opportunity of photo voltaic exercise lowering cloudiness, leading to warming additional, one must test on altering photo voltaic exercise. It seems that the solar is in an lively section probably about to “flip” its magnetic poles. In “The Solar’s Polar Magnetic Subject will Quickly Flip – And GONG is Watching,” researchers on the US Nationwide Photo voltaic Observatory write:
The Solar is about to show the other way up – magnetically talking, after all.
In current months, we’ve seen an uptick in explosive photo voltaic occasions from dramatic X-class flares to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), to highly effective geomagnetic storms and a record-shattering sunspot rely in June. The Solar might seem like a raging inferno to most of the people, however to photo voltaic scientists, it’s enterprise as normal.
An lively Solar was anticipated, and these occasions are indications that the present Photo voltaic Cycle 25 is reaching its peak in exercise, often known as Photo voltaic Most. The Solar usually follows 11-year cycles bookended by durations of Most (excessive exercise) and Minimal (low exercise). When this cycle reaches Most, the Solar will start to “calm down” and reduce in exercise because it transitions to Photo voltaic Minimal over the following decade. As soon as reached, Photo voltaic Cycle 26 will start.
The Solar is busy, however one of many thrilling developments is the reversal of its magnetic poles. Like Earth, the Solar has two magnetic poles, one optimistic and one detrimental. These poles change polarity, or magnetically flip, however not like Earth’s poles that reverse roughly each 300,000 years, the photo voltaic poles flip about each 11 years!
The Solar’s polar area reversal is the foremost hallmark occasion that indicators the tip of a photo voltaic cycle’s Most interval and ushers within the transition to Minimal. After the reversal, the newly established polar area will decide the energy of the following photo voltaic cycle. Whereas the polar area reversal doesn’t occur in a dramatic show of firepower, it is a gigantic world change with many penalties. For instance, that is the one occasion the place exercise like filament eruptions and CMEs – recognized to negatively impression Earth’s energy and communication networks – can occur at any latitude on the Solar, together with its poles.
The reversal occurs when the Solar’s polar magnetic fields are weakened and changed with a brand new area of the other polarity (e.g., going from optimistic to detrimental). The reversal is pushed by sunspots, the magnetically-complex buildings that create lively areas the place flares and different photo voltaic occasions originate. As sunspots emerge from the Solar’s inside in polar-opposite pairs, plasma flows rearrange their magnetic fields, stretching, weakening, and emphasizing the biases of their polarities. These weakened sunspot fields are carried by plasma flows in the direction of the poles. The newly-arrived area tends to be of reverse magnetic polarity to the prevailing polar area, and when reverse polarities come into contact, they destroy one another. This course of involves a head on the peak of the photo voltaic cycle, when sufficient opposite-polarity fields arrive on the poles, destroying the polar area, and changing it with a brand new polar area of the other magnetic polarity.
Whereas polar area reversals differ in velocity in timing, it typically takes a 12 months or two to finish, nevertheless it varies. Photo voltaic Cycle 24’s north polar area took almost 5 years to reverse!
On Earth, the consequences of the polar area reversal are hardly ever felt, however the photo voltaic group is paying shut consideration. Orientation of magnetic fields in CMEs could also be affected by large-scale magnetic fields. Thus, having detrimental (southern) polarity fields on the Solar’s North pole and optimistic (northern) polarity on the South pole would create magnetic topology reverse to Earth’s magnetic area. Throughout that interval, on common, the CMEs may have a barely bigger impression on Earth as in contrast with the interval when the polar fields have reverse polarities. Thus, one ought to count on that after the polar magnetic area reversal and rebuilding, on common, the geomagnetic storms can be stronger than within the declining section of Cycle 24 and the rising section of Cycle 25.
The NSO operates the NSF’s six ground-based photo voltaic telescopes that make up the GONG suite of ground-based photo voltaic telescopes. GONG stations are strategically situated world wide to take care of a close to round the clock surveillance of the seen Solar and have documented over 20 years of photo voltaic information. Observing the progress of the Solar’s polar migration is one in every of its many duties.
The article discusses the traits and significance of GONG, then concludes:
“Whereas the photo voltaic poles will ‘flip’, relaxation assured, there’s no want for us to flip out. This can be a naturally occurring course of on a large scale that’s occurred all through the Solar’s lifetime. A polar area reversal would point out a wholesome photo voltaic cycle and that issues will proceed because it was prior to now, whereas an absence of a reversal would point out potential main modifications to the photo voltaic cycle. As we anticipate the polar area reversal, we will count on to see a bigger variety of X-class flares, bigger CMEs, and stronger geomagnetic storms – keep tuned for the following replace!”
Aside from temporary, 3 day and 21-day forecasts, TWTW was unable to search out any updates on excessive vitality cosmic rays hitting the environment or any systematic database on such exercise. The temporary forecasts confirmed that cosmic ray exercise was quiet. Christy and Spencer notice that the conterminous US was solely barely above common. This may occasionally have been attributable to smoke from Canadian forest fires protecting a lot of the US on in any other case clear days. It seems we have to wait to see what nature reveals earlier than we will know what she reveals.
See hyperlinks below Science: Is the Solar Rising? and Commentary: Is the Solar Rising?
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Recommendation to College students: WUWT posted feedback by engineer Ron Barmby on the speak experimental physicist John Clauser, Nobel Laurate in physics, 2022, gave to college students in South Korea. The feedback embody:
“Dr. Clauser informed the younger South Koreans that when he performed his prize-winning experiments to settle the talk between Albert Einstein (who rejected quantum entanglement) and Niels Bohr (who supported it), he didn’t know the reply beforehand. He sought and found actuality by cautious statement of pure phenomena.
Clauser warned the scholars in opposition to getting used to fabricate an interpretation of reality at variance with actuality, which might then be propagandized opportunistically by non-scientific enterprise and political leaders (he known as them ‘techno-cons’). If the techno-cons can promote this distortion of actuality to the general public as reality, they win as a result of then they’ll suggest responses or options consistent with their very own agendas. If they’ll’t promote it, they may swap to a different contortion of reality and resume promoting. [Boldface added]
See hyperlink below Difficult the Orthodoxy.
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Biased Reality-Checking: The present fad of “fact-checking” is demonstrating the bias of reality checkers. On this instance, Fb “fact-checked” Australian scientist and diver Jennifer Marohasy who addressed claims made in March 2022 that corals at John Brewer Reef have been badly bleached. She wrote concerning the scenario once more on Oct 2, 2023. Her submit begins (photographs excluded):
I used to be again at John Brewer Reef yesterday on the lookout for the identical coral that was reported as badly bleached in March 2022. Do you assume I might discover it?
Some journalists tend to extrapolate from the precise to the final. For instance, Graham Readfearn, writing in The Guardian on March 22, 2022, extrapolated from the situation of 1 coral at one reef to your entire Nice Barrier Reef. Quoting marine biologist Adam Smith, he wrote 18 months in the past:
‘We’ve positively simply seen corals which are careworn and white… This is without doubt one of the healthiest reefs off Townsville and among the finest reefs on the entire Nice Barrier Reef. So, for these corals to be careworn and broken… effectively, it’s doubtless it’s the identical at different reefs…’
The net clickbait was {a photograph} of Smith a branching Acropora with some bleaching, rising from the middle of a plate Acropora that confirmed no bleaching in any respect.
Only a few days later the scenario was reported as much more dire with Readfearn this time quoting authorities scientists:
‘The Nice Barrier Reef has been hit with a sixth mass coral bleaching occasion, the marine park’s authority has confirmed, with aerial surveys exhibiting nearly no reefs throughout a 1,200km stretch escaping the warmth.
The Guardian understands a United Nations mission at the moment below option to test the well being and administration of the reef can be briefed on the preliminary findings of the surveys as early as Friday in Townsville …
Authorities scientists mentioned the affirmation confirmed the urgency of reducing greenhouse gasoline emissions that have been driving the repeated mass bleachings. [end quote]
The story went world wide, accompanied principally by inventory pictures of bleached coral or aerial footage from so excessive within the sky it was unimaginable to see particular person corals. There was a map to make it much more official.
In July 2022 Marohasy reported on her findings concerning the reef with images in a submit on her web site which included the assertion: “Many of the corals on the reef crest at John Brewer are actually numerous shades of beige to chocolate brown, and so the reef is wanting exceptionally wholesome.”
She explains her subsequent remedy:
“There was extra data within the captions accompanying the ten images, however once more this data was restricted to John Brewer Reef. The weblog submit [Marohasy’s] was republished by the Institute of Public Affairs.
Fb subsequently hooked up a ‘warning’, indicating that my article had been ‘Reality Checked’ and located to be ‘deceptive’.
This can be a critical accusation.
Solely as a result of Scott Hargreaves, Government Director on the IPA, was ready to test the main points of the RMIT Univrsity FactLab allegation, my article was not merely faraway from the IPA web site. Scott noticed by means of the hypocrisy. He inspired me to submit an enchantment, which I did on August 2, 2022. That enchantment was dismissed on August 5 on the subject of an unrelated weblog submit as proof I inappropriately extrapolate from the precise to the final this time on the subject of the velocity of restoration from the bleaching.” [Boldface added]
Apparently, some “reality checkers” don’t have any problem with journalists and authorities officers and scientists extrapolating from the precise to the final – such because the “the oceans are boiling.” Nonetheless, these “reality checkers” sound the alarm when opposite scientists are accused of constructing such extrapolations?
See hyperlink below Altering Seas.
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Variety of the Week: lower than 15% of the time in 2021, then dropped.
For years TWTW has used the Gorona del Viento challenge (wind generators and a pumped storage reservoirs) on El Hierro Island (inhabitants lower than 12,000) within the Canary Islands as a typical exhibiting that wind energy and storage are inadequate to provide a contemporary group with dependable electrical energy. In accordance with earlier reviews from the utility, the system failed solely 40% of the time over a 12 months. Diesel is the wanted back-up. Francis Menton has examined extra present information. He writes:
“There are 8760 hours in a 12 months (8784 in a bissextile year like 2020). So, in 2019 they obtained all of their electrical energy from the wind/hydro system about 26% of the time. Then that dropped to below 22% of the time in 2020, and fewer than 15% of the time in 2021. Someday in 2022 they stopped reporting the info. Now they blare out baloney about “tons of carbon emissions saved” whereas operating the backup diesel generator absolutely 85% of the time.”
But many politicians insist they’ll design a system to supply reasonably priced, dependable wind and solar energy to a contemporary industrialized nation. As Menton states, present me the demonstration challenge.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Solar Rising?
The Subsequent Nice Complete Photo voltaic Eclipse On US Soil Is Now Simply About Six Months Away…Monday, April eighth, 2024
By Paul Doran, WUWT, Oct 6, 2023
The Solar’s Polar Magnetic Subject will Quickly Flip – And GONG is Watching
By Alexei Pevtsov, et al. Nationwide Photo voltaic Observatory (NSO), Aug 3, 2023 [H/t Anthony Watts]
https://nso.edu/weblog/polar-magnetic-field-reversal/
Atmospheric ionization and cloud radiative forcing
By Henrik Svensmark, et al, Nature Scientific Reviews, Oct 11, 2021
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-99033-1
Commentary: Is the Solar Rising?
Has the Solar’s true position in world warming been miscalculated?
Press Launch, CERES Staff, Oct 3, 2023
https://www.ceres-science.com/submit/has-the-sun-s-true-role-in-global-warming-been-miscalculated
New Research: Choice Bias In Datasets Advances A False Narrative The Solar Has No Local weather Impression
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Oct 5, 2023
Hyperlink to at least one examine: Challenges within the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Floor Temperature tendencies Since 1850
By Connolly, et al, Analysis in Astronomy and Astrophysics, October 2023
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1674-4527/acf18e/pdf
Hyperlink to second paper: Empirical evaluation of the position of the Solar in local weather change utilizing balanced multi-proxy photo voltaic information
By Nicola Scafetta, Geoscience Frontiers, November 2023
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987123001172
Censorship
The BBC Seminar That Banned Dialogue Of Local weather Change
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 1, 2023
“The very actual suspicion is that the occasion was intentionally designed from the very outset to give you the end result that it did– ie that ‘the load of proof now not justifies equal house being given to the opponents of the consensus’”
Difficult the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Bodily Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2013
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/paperwork/CCR/CCR-II/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Organic Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Abstract: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Abstract-for-Policymakers.pdf
Local weather Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By A number of Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change, April 2019
http://retailer.heartland.org/store/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Obtain with no cost:
Why Scientists Disagree About World Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental Worldwide Panel on Local weather Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Obtain with no cost:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Exercise, Guidelines the Local weather
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
World Sea-Degree Rise: An Analysis of the Information
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Coverage Temporary, Could 20, 2019
Difficult the Orthodoxy
Fact and Science: A Nobel Laureate’s Recommendation to College students
By Ron Barnby, WUWT, Oct 4, 2023
Environment and Greenhouse Gasoline Primer
W. A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
https://wvanwijngaarden.information.yorku.ca/information/2023/03/GreenhousePrimerArxiv.pdf?x45936
Local weather Alarmist Declare Reality Checks
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Oct 4, 2023
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/political-climate/alarmist_claim_rebuttals_updated/
Vital Examination of Hurricane Intensification Predictions
Why local weather fashions not but price their salt!
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Sep 30, 2023
“You’ll be able to all the time acknowledge biased alarmist scientists and media. They are going to report the intensification of a hurricane in a really small area for a really brief time the place barrier layers type, and solely blame it on CO2global warming.”
Julian Simon Memorial Award 2023: Feedback of David Simon
By David Simon, Grasp Useful resource, Oct 2, 2023
“This 12 months’s award recipients, Marian Tupy and Gale Pooley, started working collectively a number of years in the past on a really formidable challenge that final 12 months reached an apex with the publication of their e-book, Superabundance. My father would have beloved this e-book.”
Recycling 500-12 months-Outdated Scams
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 5, 2023
“5 hundred years in the past specialists predicted London was about to drown. The identical rip-off continues right now.”
[SEPP Comment: The earlier prophesy came from Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles Makay, 1841]
https://www.google.com/books/version/Memoirs_of_Extraordinary_Popular_Delusio/ufoLAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1
Defending the Orthodoxy
Pope singles out US for ‘irresponsible’ extra in name for motion on local weather change
By Lauren Irwin, The Hill, Oct 4, 2023
“Pope Francis singled out the US for its ‘irresponsible’ Western way of life and extra carbon emissions in a Wednesday deal with on the United Nations.”
[SEPP Comment: Catholic World News had the following: “New papal document puts climate change before faith [news analysis]” The article acknowledged: “Within the Galileo controversy, some Church leaders unwisely sought to settle a scientific debate by invoking ecclesiastical authority. On this new doc Pope Francis takes the identical strategy to the difficulty of local weather change, insisting that solely radical financial and political reforms can stave off environmental catastrophe.”]
https://www.catholicculture.org/information/headlines/index.cfm?storyid=60106
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Chump summit
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 4, 2023
“P.S. The Secretary-Common’s closing remarks to this futile gathering ended with ‘Take no prisoners.’ Positive, simply execute your opposition. Why are we a member of this factor?”
No Method, Norway
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 4, 2023
Hyperlink to paper: To what extent are temperature ranges altering attributable to greenhouse gasoline emissions?
By John Okay. Dagsvik and Sigmund H. Moen, Statistics Norway, September 2023
“’the outcomes indicate that the impact of synthetic CO2 emissions doesn’t seem like sufficiently sturdy to trigger systematic modifications within the sample of the temperature fluctuations. In different phrases, our evaluation signifies that with the present stage of data, it appears unimaginable to find out how a lot of the temperature improve is because of emissions of CO2.’”
Doomsday Local weather Speak, Déjà vu
By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Oct 2, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Contains the graph: “The measured (symbols on left) and modeled (lines) temperature trends vs. altitude. The Russian model comes closest to the data, and the worst fit is GFDL-CM3, Manabe’s model for which he was awarded a Nobel prize. (Fig. 3 from John R. Christy and Richard T. McNider, DOI:10.1007/s13143-017-0070-z, annotated.)”]
CO2 Fluxes Are Not Like Money Flows
By Ron Clutz, Science Issues, Oct 1, 2023
Hyperlink to paper and dialogue: On Hens, Eggs, Temperatures and CO2: Causal Hyperlinks in Earth’s Environment
By Demetris Koutsoyiannis, et al. Sci, Sep 13, 2023
https://www.mdpi.com/2413-4155/5/3/35
hyperlink to dialogue: Causality and local weather
By Antonis Christofides, Demetris Koutsoyiannis, et al (Similar authors because the On Hen… paper, Local weather And many others., Sep 26, 2023
Do The Met Workplace Know What Excessive Climate Actually Appears to be like Like?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 4, 2023
“I’ve a prediction!
On the finish of the 12 months, the Met Workplace’s State of the Local weather report will declare 2023 as a ‘12 months of Extremes’.”
Tidbits
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 4, 2023
Consists of Jochem Marotzke, head of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.
Mistaken Influences Give Us Corrupted ‘Science’
scientific technique illustrated as an ongoing course of
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Oct 5, 2023
https://www.newsmax.com/larrybell/science-politics-ideology/2023/10/04/id/1136961/
Extra Actual-World Proof Signifies ‘Hint Gases Such As CO2 Don’t Have Any Affect…On Local weather’
By Kenneth Richard, No Methods Zone, Oct 3, 2023
Hyperlink to paper: The Actual Origin of Local weather Change and the Feasibilities of Its Mitigation
By Thomas Allmendinger, Atmospheric and Local weather Sciences, 2023
[SEPP Comment: It would be more correct to say that greenhouse gases (such as H2O and CO2) are important in keeping land masses of Earth warm enough at night to support complex life but lose effectiveness with diminishing returns. At current concentrations, increasing CO2 has a minimal effect on temperatures. The author erroneously uses the 1896 paper by Arrhenius, which corrected ten years later, but these errors were continued by others. More recent studies in spectroscopy and the HITRAN database give a better understanding of what is occurring in the atmosphere with increasing CO2.]
Change in US Administrations
Biden’s vitality rhetoric doesn’t mirror actuality
By Brigham A. McCown, Washington Occasions, Oct 2, 2023 [H/t William Readdy]
https://www.washingtontimes.com/information/2023/oct/2/bidens-energy-rhetoric-doesnt-reflect-reality/
Social Advantages of Carbon Dioxide
CO2 Greening: Getting Again to the Fundamentals
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 5, 2023
From Nationwide Academy of Sciences, et al., (1992): “Enriching the environment to 600 ppm CO2 ought to improve all yields, particularly crops with a photosynthesis like wheat that responds sharply to extra CO2. It ought to shut the hole between wheat and corn. It ought to particularly favor the numerous crops within the pure panorama which have a responsive photosynthesis like wheat.”
In search of a Frequent Floor
The Baloney Detection Package
Carl Sagan’s guidelines for essential pondering provide cognitive fortification in opposition to propaganda, pseudoscience, and common falsehood.
By Maria Popova, The Marginalian (previously Mind Pickings), Accessed Oct 2, 2023
https://getpocket.com/discover/merchandise/the-baloney-detection-kit-carl-sagan-s-rules-for-bullshit-busting-and-critical-thinking
How bushes affect cloud formation
By Jan Berndorff, Paul Scherrer Institute, Phys.org, Sep 8, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
https://phys.org/information/2023-09-trees-cloud-formation.html
Hyperlink to paper: Function of sesquiterpenes in biogenic new particle formation
By Lubna Dada, AAAS Science Advances, Sep 8, 2023
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adi5297
From the summary: “We discover {that a} class of vapors termed ultralow-volatility natural compounds (ULVOCs) are extremely environment friendly nucleators and quantitatively decide NPF [new particle formation] effectivity. Compared with a mix of isoprene and monoterpene alone, including solely 2% sesquiterpene will increase the ULVOC yield and doubles the formation charge. Thus, sesquiterpene emissions should be included in assessments of worldwide aerosol concentrations in pristine climates the place biogenic NPF is anticipated to be a significant supply of cloud condensation nuclei.”
[SEPP Comment: The Great Smoky Mountains were so named after the VOCs emitted by trees, particularly late summer. In recent years, green groups claimed it was for clouds.]
Fashions v. Observations
Local weather Fashions Mistaken On East Pacific… “We Don’t Know Why This Cooling Is Occurring”
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 3, 2023
Measurement Points — Floor
Making use of Scale and Context to 2023’s “File” Excessive Temperatures
By David Middleton, WUWT, Oct 3, 2023
Measurement Points — Environment
UAH World Temperature Replace for September 2023: +0.90 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, World Warming, Oct 2, 2023
“The linear warming pattern since January 1979 nonetheless stands at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.19 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
World Temperature Report
By Workers, Earth System Science Middle, UAH, September 2023, Oct 5, 2023
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/local weather/2023/SEPTEMBER_2023.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/local weather/2023/tlt_update_bar.png
Textual content by John Christy and Roy Spencer: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/local weather/2023/september2023/GTR_202309SEP_v1.pdf
World Month-to-month Imply CO2
By Workers, World Monitoring Laboratory, NOAA, Accessed Oct 6, 2023
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/tendencies/world.html
Altering Climate
Stuff you’re not allowed to know #7: tendencies in pure disasters
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 4, 2023
Hyperlink to: RETRACTED ARTICLE: A essential evaluation of maximum occasions tendencies in instances of worldwide warming
By Gianluca Alimonti, et al. The European Bodily Journal Plus, Jan 13, 2022
https://hyperlink.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9
PDO-ENSO interactions over the previous 4 centuries
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 4, 2023
From the CO2 Science Archive:
Germany’s By Far Worst Ever Flood Occurred Practically 700 Years In the past… The Magdalen Flood
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 4, 2023
Video in German
Germany 17.2°C Imply September Temperature Units All-Time Excessive…DWD Blames “Local weather Change”
By P Gosselin, No Methods Zone, Oct 1, 2023
New York Metropolis Floods
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 1, 2023
“wettest day on file”
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Sep 30, 2023
“Horses Drowned in Brooklyn and Human Beings in Peril.” — 1903
The Jet Stream is Strengthening As Autumn Climate Settles In to the Northwest
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Oct 5, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/10/the-jet-stream-is-strengthening-as.html
Altering Seas
Nothing To Sea Right here Of us
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 2, 2023
Video – The ocean stage scare
AMOC: A Non-Tipping level
By Gabriel Oxenstierna, WUWT, Oct 5, 2023
Discovering that Similar Coral!
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Weblog, Oct 2, 2023
Altering Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
“Sure, Antarctic sea ice is melting quicker than ever earlier than”
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 3, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Particularly when Vostok Station, on high ground, hits minus 107 F, when dry ice (frozen CO2) sublimates (evaporates) at minus 109 F.]
Local weather scientists admit they’ve a 90% probability of being fallacious about Arctic sea ice
By Javier Vinós, WUWT, Oct 4, 2023
[SEPP Comment: To climate scientists, great disparities between data and claims are not an admission, just an oversight.]
If at first you don’t recede
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 4, 2023
Altering Earth
Rock Weathering as a CO₂ Sink Or?: A New Perspective
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 6, 2023
Hyperlink to paper: Rock natural carbon oxidation CO2 launch offsets silicate weathering sink
By Jesse R. Zondervan, et al., Nature, Oct 4, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06581-9
[SEPP Comment: Authors find the release of CO2 from exposed rocks rival or exceed the CO2 drawdown from silicate weathering. “Hotspots of CO2 release are found in mountain ranges with high uplift rates exposing fine-grained sedimentary rock, such as the eastern Himalayas, the Rocky Mountains and the Andes.”]
An Unexplored Supply of Local weather Change: Land Evapotranspiration Adjustments Over Time.
By Charles Blaisdell, WUWT, Oct 5, 2023
Reducing Requirements
BBC Italy Floods Criticism Goes To ECU
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 6, 2023
“One other BBC criticism is wending its approach by means of their Government Complaints Unit!
You’ll in all probability keep in mind their declare after the Bologna floods in Could of ‘half annual rainfall in 36 hours’. The declare was made by weatherman Chris Fawkes, as a lead in to the climate forecast.
“He talked about ‘over 200mm of rain’, however common annual rainfall within the area is about 1000mm, so the declare was clearly pretend.”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Yellow (Inexperienced) Journalism?
Hottest Evah September!!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 6, 2023
“’Greenhouse gases have been warming not simply the environment but in addition the deep ocean, particularly within the Atlantic, added Prof Forster, and now a change in ocean circulation is ‘inflicting a few of that warmth from the deeper ocean to resurface and chew us’.
“Forster is sort of fallacious, knowingly I believe, as a result of it’s bodily unimaginable for GHGs to heat the deep ocean. It’s because infrared radiation can solely penetrate the highest few millimeters of the ocean.”
No local weather sign in heatwave deaths
By David Whitehouse, Internet Zeo Watch, Oct 2, 2023
The BBC Seminar & Andrew Simms
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 6, 2023
September sizzled to information and was a lot hotter than common scientists name it ‘mind-blowing’
By Seth Borenstein, Yahoo Information, Oct 4, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://information.yahoo.com/september-sizzled-records-much-warmer-020156328.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cDovL21haWwuaGFhcGFsYS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAA-B5nMkFlaEMAfLGHNhubr_k94qa66Izmx6MYe3Su-Mayp5zyTkZV5cxco_f11koVROuYzK_BwYr4B1MIp0Mvrq56F7sarhy1pfgFgFaNIzDp9oOVQnW2p2VZSleeeLhIjMkjliZ-j7EIYxmCoHNLRI_yZhTRG-eJO2zWxZBnr1
[SEPP Comment: Poor science is accompanied by poor writing in the headline.]
Speaking Higher to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Obscure?
Storm Agnes In Pembrokeshire
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 5, 2023
Speaking Higher to the Public – Make issues up.
Worldwide Vitality Company Oil Demand Claims: Their Headlines Could Please The Masters, However The Information Often Says One thing Else
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Oct 3, 2023
New Zealand grid
By Chris Morris, Local weather And many others. Sep 30, 2023
From feedback: “Mark Jacobson of 100% renewable notorious fame – brags concerning the 45 nations with 50% plus penetration of renewables. Of these 45 nations, the one industrialized nations on the listing have very excessive hydro electrical vitality technology (NZ, Norway, Iceland, components of Canada) With out Hydro, none of industrialized nations come wherever near have excessive renewable penetration.”
Speaking Higher to the Public – Use Propaganda
100% Pretend Local weather Journalism
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 6, 2023
“In my research of communist societies, I got here to the conclusion that the aim of communist propaganda was to not persuade or persuade, to not inform however to humiliate; and due to this fact, the much less it corresponded to actuality the higher.”– Theodore Dalrymple
Video – Antarctic Sea ice
Is A lot of Washington State Experiencing Extreme and Excessive Drought?
It is rather unlucky when authorities entities present data that’s incorrect and exaggerated.
By Cliff Mass, Climate Weblog, Oct 3, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/10/is-much-of-washington-state.html
Speaking Higher to the Public – Protest
Local weather Activists Defend Spreading Laptop Malware to Educate Skeptics
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 30, 2023
The local weather racket
By John Robson, Local weather Dialogue Nexus, Oct 4, 2023
“So pay attention up, soup-throwing extremity-gluing nonsense-spouting brats of all ages: You reside in a free society with a working, if messy, self-governing democracy. You’ll be able to vote for local weather motion; you’ll be able to schedule your personal occasions; you’ll be able to write letters to or gadgets within the newspaper. You’ll be able to weblog, community and alter your personal way of life. However get the heck off the [tennis] courtroom except you’ve obtained a large serve, a depraved backhand, and the endurance and coronary heart of a champion.”
Questioning European Inexperienced
Foisting inexperienced levies onto gasoline payments will trigger public well being disaster, Sunak warned
Press Launch, Internet Zero Watch, Oct 4, 2023
“Marketing campaign group Internet Zero Watch has condemned Authorities plans to maneuver renewables levies onto gasoline customers.”
Questioning Inexperienced Elsewhere
The Jupiter Impact: The Hubris of Inexperienced Central Planners
By Tilak Doshi, Forbes, By way of WUWT, Oct 6, 2023
“In conclusion, the ‘Jupiter Impact ‘ in fashionable local weather change coverage is a stark reminder of the hazards of hubris. Leaders who consider they’ll command the forces of nature and the worldwide economic system with edicts and decrees are certain to face the tough realities of the world. As Friedrich von Hayek properly famous:
‘The curious process of economics is to show to males how little they actually find out about what they think about they’ll design ‘.
It’s excessive time our leaders took a web page out of King Canute’s e-book and acknowledged the bounds of their energy. Solely then can we hope for pragmatic and efficient options actual and never made-up challenges we face.”
Costly Low-cost Vitality
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Oct 3, 2023
The Vitality Transition is Social Vandalism
By Dr. Euan Mearns, CO2 Coalition, Oct 13, 2023
AFR: Extra Aussies Have to Volunteer for Vitality Rationing
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 3, 2023
Litigation Points
Superfund Cleanups Descend Into Uncertainty
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Oct 5, 2023
Cap-and-Commerce and Carbon Taxes
Europe Launches a Carbon Tax Assault Towards the US Financial system
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 1, 2023
Vitality Points — US
ERCOT Readies ‘Retired’ Gasoline Era for the 2023/24 Winter Peak
By Ed Eire, Grasp Useful resource, Oct 4, 2023
Washington’s Management of Vitality
Authorities over U.S. Oil and Gasoline: A Abstract
By Robert Bradley Jr., Grasp Useful resource, Oct 6, 2023
Nuclear Vitality and Fears
Renewable Vitality? Microsoft Advertises for a Nuclear Information Middle Undertaking Chief
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 30, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Don’t read too much into this. Growing corporations explore all feasible ways to reduce expected costs. Small, Modular Reactors (SMRs) may be ideal to provide reliable, affordable electricity to a cluster of data centers that need it 24/7/365. Further, unlike solar and wind, they will not burden the consumer with increasing costs by eating the cash flow needed to maintain reliable generation.]
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Photo voltaic and Wind
Replace On Offshore Wind Tasks Off The Mid-Atlantic And New England
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 5, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/weblog/2023-10-5-update-on-offshore-wind-projects-off-the-mid-atlantic-and-new-england
“Will any of those wildly uneconomic offshore wind initiatives truly ever get constructed? Let’s hope not.”
Wind Blows
Good news for ratepayers, birds, bats, landscapes, and whales as offshore and onshore wind initiatives get scuttled
By Robert Bryce, His Weblog, Oct 4, 2023
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/wind-blows?publication_id=630873&post_id=137642808&isFreemail=true&r=2f3nsy
“Who knew that inflation and excessive rates of interest have been good for whales, birds, bats, seascapes, and rural landscapes?”
Failing underwater cables “pose world menace to offshore wind”
“Who knew excessive voltage cables operating for kilometers in a deep electrolytic shifting physique of water can be costly?”
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 6, 2023
Rooftop Photo voltaic Energy Has a Darkish Facet
By Alama Semels, Time, Sep 26, 2023
https://time.com/6317339/rooftop-solar-power-failure/
“This 12 months, through the warmth of summer season, when temperatures in New York surpassed 90°F, the 22 photo voltaic panels on the roof of my home have been doing completely nothing.”
[SEPP Comment: Not only the panels did not work, but if they did work, they would produce little electricity – upstate New York is a hot area for solar energy promotion, not production.]
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Vitality — Storage
It’s Time To Construct The Intermittent Renewable Plus Hydrogen Storage Demonstration Undertaking!
By Franics Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 30, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/weblog/2023-9-30-its-time-to-build-the-intermittent-renewable-plus-hydrogen-storage-demonstration-project
How A lot Vitality Storage is Sufficient?
By Kevin Kilty, WIWT. Oct 5, 2023
Extending on “A Semi-Competent Report On Vitality Storage From Britain’s Royal Society” by Francis Menton
Various, Inexperienced (“Clear”) Autos
EV Homeowners Going through Hovering Insurance coverage Prices
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 2, 2023
“My coronary heart bleeds for this planet saving hero!!”
John Lewis stops insuring electrical vehicles over restore value fears
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 6, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The John Lewis department store is not one of the top ten car insurance companies in UK.]
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/largest-car-insurance-companies
Different Information that Could Be of Curiosity
The New York Metropolis PreK-12 Training Price range: New York Occasions Versus Actuality
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Oct 3, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/weblog/2023-10-3-the-new-york-city-prek-12-education-budget-new-york-times-versus-reality
“If you happen to surprise why folks in New York Metropolis appear to have a very warped view of actuality, look no farther than the New York Occasions. The Occasions is the place all of the seemingly well-educated and complicated higher earnings New Yorkers get their ‘information.’
“So a ‘large fiscal cliff ‘ is coming, involving ‘a whole lot of tens of millions of {dollars}.’ Properly, is that rather a lot or a bit of within the total image? You received’t discover the reply right here. Certainly, past one imprecise line that ‘New York invests extra in its college students than different giant cities’, you received’t discover right here any of the vital data that you’d wish to know for an knowledgeable consideration of the subject material. For instance, in your entire lengthy piece, they by no means point out the general dimension of the Metropolis’s training price range, the variety of college students, the per scholar spending stage, or how the spending compares quantitatively with different cities. As an alternative, what we get is one after one other dire warning concerning the horrible results of reducing the extent of training spending by even a penny.”
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
A Dialog with Google Bard on the Consensus
By Andy Could, WUWT, Oct 5, 2023
Amusing
Local weather Scientists Conversing
By Tony Heller, His Weblog, Oct 4, 2023
EV kidnaps the motive force at 30 mph, runs amok
And also you thought your final software program crash was unhealthy
By Jo Nova, Her Weblog, Oct 5, 2023
Motorway service stations hiring workers to police surging ranges of EV ‘cost rage’
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of Folks Know That, Oct 7, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Does the US Secretary of Energy understand?]
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