Because the existential risk of local weather change continues to accentuate, the way forward for fossil fuels has been thrust into the worldwide highlight. Lowering hydrocarbon manufacturing and consumption, referred to as fossil gas part down, has gained traction in worldwide local weather talks over the last two years amid warnings that the window to keep away from catastrophic warming is closing shortly.
The consensus has lengthy been that carbon needs to be attributed the place it’s emitted, and the emissions of fossil fuels, as tradable items, ought to solely be accounted for the place they’re burned. This absolved fossil gas exporters of all emissions however these related to its extraction and manufacturing processes. The landmark 2015 Paris Settlement lacked any language round phasing down oil, pure fuel, and coal provides and targeted solely on lowering emissions from burning hydrocarbons by way of adopting vitality effectivity measures and switching to renewable vitality sources.
The 2021 United Nations Local weather Change Convention (twenty sixth Convention of the Events, COP26) in Glasgow noticed the primary ever COP determination the place events dedicated to speed up “efforts in direction of the phasedown of unabated coal energy and phase-out of inefficient fossil gas subsidies”. On the identical summit, over 40 international locations additionally signed on to the Past Oil and Fuel Alliance, pledging to part down fossil gas manufacturing.
The next yr, at COP27, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, a coalition of over 80 international locations demanded that this dedication be expanded to incorporate all fossil fuels. Whereas unsuccessful, it was an additional sign of accelerating strain to contemplate the function of fossil fuels provides, and the start of a shift towards putting extra accountability on fossil gas producers quite than simply its shoppers.
A rising motion led by activists and civil society organizations argues that supply-side motion is required to limit extraction and manufacturing of oil, fuel, and coal, in addition to the related lobbying of governments by fossil gas firms. Stress can also be rising towards the continued provision of subsidies to fossil gas consumption, which solely serve to assist carbon-intensive industries. In response to a current estimate by the Worldwide Financial Fund, whole international fossil gas subsidies amounted to $7 trillion in 2022, equal to just about 7.1% of worldwide GDP, and greater than 5 occasions all funding in vitality transition applied sciences, together with vitality effectivity, throughout the identical yr.
The shift couldn’t have come at a tougher time: It coincided with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, a decent vitality market, and heightened issues concerning the financial influence of excessive vitality costs. This concern was evident in 2022, when america authorities closely criticized the OPEC+ cartel for slicing again petroleum manufacturing.
The Gulf’s distinctive transition
Producing a fifth of worldwide oil provide and holding 56% and 40% of the world’s confirmed typical oil and fuel reserves, respectively, the Gulf international locations discover themselves on the receiving finish of a few of this strain, whereas going through a novel financial conundrum.
They’ve lengthy relied on revenues from fossil gas exports to drive their nationwide economies. And in recent times, they’ve relied on these exports additional to diversify and decarbonize these economies. Excluding Qatar, all international locations of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have plans to succeed in internet zero carbon by 2050 or 2060, regardless of their restricted historic accountability for man-made local weather change. All of them have financial diversification plans at numerous levels of growth. The United Arab Emirates goals to derive half of its GDP from non-oil sources by the top of the last decade.
The irony right here is that Gulf international locations are utilizing revenues from oil and fuel to fund diversification and decarbonization efforts in preparation for a future when the world now not wants these fossil fuels. On this race towards time, Saudi Arabia has utilized its petroleum revenue to take a position closely in sectors like tourism and renewable vitality. Equally, the UAE has tapped into its fossil gas wealth to develop its know-how, logistics, and tourism sectors.
The inherent contradiction of utilizing oil and fuel revenues to fund decarbonization has stirred up controversy, contemplating how these exports allow different international locations’ emissions. It has even led to calls for producers to depart unexploited hydrocarbons within the floor. Nonetheless, abruptly halting oil and fuel exports may have extreme financial penalties for the Gulf international locations, to not point out worldwide markets extra usually. With out rents from hydrocarbon exports, the Gulf economies would probably falter earlier than their diversification efforts may bear fruit. The consequence might be financial crises, excessive unemployment, and political instability within the Gulf, harming native residents and undermining regional safety, whereas concurrently roiling economies, monetary markets, and transportation, business, and food-production sectors internationally.
Confronted with international strain to deal with local weather change whereas depending on fossil gas revenue and incentivized by continued sturdy worldwide demand for his or her vitality exports, Gulf states have developed local weather methods centered on carbon seize and storage, offsets, and emissions buying and selling. They argue that when demand for oil peaks, they need to be the final producer standing given their low carbon footprint per unit of vitality produced. On the identical time, these international locations are more and more investing in renewable vitality as a consequence of its price competitiveness and potential to unlock extra oil and fuel for export.
This twin method is exemplified by Saudi Arabia by way of its Round Carbon Economic system framework. Somewhat than lowering oil and fuel manufacturing, the dominion goals to neutralize emissions by increasing renewable vitality sources to half of its electrical energy capability by 2030. It additionally has bold plans to plant billions of bushes, develop carbon-capture know-how, and set up a carbon market.
Below the highlight
The selection of the UAE to host COP28 and the appointment of Dr. Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber to preside over the upcoming local weather summit shone a obtrusive highlight on the Gulf amid this rising battle over the way forward for fossil fuels. It sparked backlash from local weather advocates who feared an oil government presiding over the negotiations would characterize a battle of curiosity, no matter his document as a local weather pioneer. Additionally they frightened it’d affect the pivotal tug of conflict between fossil gas producing international locations and people searching for a part down of oil and fuel.
In an unprecedented transfer, greater than 130 lawmakers from the U.S. and European Union wrote an open letter calling for Sultan al-Jaber’s elimination. Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore referred to as his appointment “outrageous” and mentioned it despatched a message that “the oil and fuel business remains to be in cost,” whereas former U.N. local weather chief Christiana Figueres referred to as his method “harmful.”
In response, the COP28 presidency adopted a extra progressive method towards the vitality transition, echoing the Worldwide Renewable Power Company’s (IRENA) name to triple renewable vitality funding by 2030 and referring to the part down of fossil fuels as “inevitable” and “important.”
Showdown in Dubai
However this marketing campaign towards fossil gas manufacturing was by no means simply concerning the Gulf producers, and it continues to achieve momentum. The most recent U.N. synthesis report highlighted that Paris objectives are unlikely to be achievable with out phasing out all unabated fossil fuels. It additionally referred to as for a cessation of all new oil, fuel, and coal exploration and for phasing out fossil gas manufacturing earlier than 2050. The Worldwide Power Company’s (IEA) Internet Zero Roadmap likewise warned towards new infrastructure and forecasted a peak in coal, oil, and fuel demand by 2030. Throughout the U.N. Local weather Ambition Summit, on Sept. 20, 2023, Secretary-Basic António Guterres implored leaders to part out all hydrocarbons and denounced “bare greed” holding again the vitality transition.
With the world off-track on Paris objectives, and mounting excessive climate focusing minds, a reckoning over fossil fuels looms in Dubai. The Gulf will face heavy scrutiny, as its local weather method and carbon mitigation applied sciences draw elevated consideration. In June, the U.N. chief referred to as plans to broaden oil and fuel utilizing carbon-capture applied sciences “proposals to develop into extra environment friendly planet wreckers.” In late September, former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown referred to as for a levy on oil and fuel exports to make up for the shortfall in local weather finance that the developed economies have failed to supply. His proposal singled out Gulf producers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, together with Norway, however didn’t embody larger producers reminiscent of america, which is on observe to characterize over one-third of all deliberate fossil gas enlargement by way of 2050.
Entrenched positions and no compromise in sight imply a difficult COP awaits. Simply seven years stay to satisfy international pledges to halve emissions, so the stakes are immense. The shortage of a negotiation observe on phasing out fossil fuels complicates progress. Except an unlikely consensus emerges, this pivotal tug-of-war will proceed till the Dubai local weather summit concludes, and it may spill out into the open through the drafting of the ultimate assertion.
COP28 represents a now-or-never probability for humanity to collectively rise to the existential local weather problem. However an progressive compromise is desperately wanted to keep away from one other setback. We should all row in unison, lest we drown in divided squabbles.
Karim Elgendy is an city sustainability and local weather guide primarily based in London, and a Non-Resident Scholar on the Center East Institute.
Photograph by YU FANGPING/ Function China/Future Publishing by way of Getty Photos
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